That includes half a billion dollars in Ohio alone, another $340 million in Pennsylvania and $280 million in Montana, with a population of 1.1 million, or less than one-tenth the population of Ohio or Pennsylvania. The most expensive Senate race ever was Democrat John Ossoff’s victory in a Georgia election that led to a runoff in 2021 and decided control of the Senate, according to data from the campaign finance tracking organization Open Secrets.
Overall, campaign strategists say Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is polling ahead of his party’s Senate candidates in Senate battleground states, while Democratic candidates in those states are voting ahead of their presidential nominee, Kamala Harris.
That means there is a segment of voters who could vote for Trump but not support Republicans in the Senate races — or who could split their ticket with Democratic Senate candidates.
Such splits have been rare. In Maine, for example, voters in 2020 supported Democrat Joe Biden for president and re-elected Republican Senator Susan Collins.
Republican strategists said they expect the party’s top super PACs to stay until Election Day in seven states where Democrats are defending Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls show competitive races. but also Nevada and Arizona, where Republicans are encouraged by strong early voting numbers.
Republicans are most confident of flipping the seat in deep-red Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy is challenging third-term Democratic Senator Jon Tester. They’re also optimistic about reliably red Ohio, where Republican Bernie Moreno is challenging third-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.