The stock market started November on a high after a slump and closed last month as uncertainty over the US presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates hang over the market.
A sharp downturn on Thursday, led by a sell-off in technology stocks, pushed the major indexes into negative territory for October. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones posted five-month winning streaks, while the Nasdaq Composite failed to post a monthly gain for the first time since July.
The third quarter earnings season will end in November with some big names including Nvidia (NVDA) and Home Depot (HD). But the presidential election on November 5 is likely to dominate headlines and move markets the most this month. Below we look at some stocks that could see big price moves.
Nvidia
Nvidia will report its third-quarter results on November 20, and leading up to those results, investor attention will be squarely on the world’s largest chip company.
Analysts are overwhelmingly optimistic about the long-term potential of Nvidia’s stock, which nearly four in five analysts rate as “buy.” Wall Street Journal facts. Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) called Nvidia “a generational opportunity” in a recent note, citing Nvidia’s dominant position within an artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator market that they expect to quadruple in size to $280 billion dollars in 2027.
U.S. cloud providers are expected to spend more than $200 billion on infrastructure this year, with much of that spending going to the data centers and chips that train and run AI models. Nvidia, with an estimated 80% share of the AI chip market, is by far the biggest beneficiary of that spending.
Nvidia shares are up nearly 170% this year after surging more than 200% last year. But with the stock’s excellent performance, expectations are high. Shares fell more than 6% the day after handily beating Nvidia second quarter profit estimates at the end of August.
Trump Media & Technology Group
Trump Media & Technology Group’s Daily Movement (DJT) stocks have essentially become a benchmark for former President Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the White House in January. No other stock is so widely seen as an indicator of voter sentiment, and no other company’s fate hangs so directly on the outcome of the November election.
The shares more than doubled in value in October as polls showed Trump closing the gap with Vice President Kamala Harris in national polls. Leading up to November 5, DJT’s share price is likely to continue to reflect betting on popular platforms such as PolyMarket, PredictIt and, as of Monday, . even Robinhood (CAP).
Given how close the polls suggest the election will be, DJT will likely remain volatile, especially if legal challenges to the results arise in courts across the country.
Home Depot
Home improvement retailer Home Depot will report its quarterly earnings in mid-month, and investors will be hoping the results contain signs of a turnaround in the US housing market.
Mortgage interest declined steadily through most of the third quarter, falling from an average of about 7% in early July to just 5.9% in mid-September, as the Federal Reserve began cutting its benchmark interest rate.
New property advertisements reached a three-year high in September 2024, according to data from Realtor.com, when rate cuts and optimism “lock-in effectof higher interest rates. There were more homes for sale at the end of September than at any time since April 2020. That could be a good sign for Home Depot, whose business relies heavily on homeowners making improvements ahead of listing.
That said, rising 10-year Treasury yields have pushed mortgage rates higher in recent weeks. Wall Street has tempered expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively cut rates this year and next. The uncertainty surrounding the presidential election and the impact of each candidate’s policies on the economy have also contributed to the rise in yields. Rising interest rates could cloud Home Depot’s prospects, as well as homebuilder DR Horton (DHI) whose shares fell when earnings estimates were announced lagged behind estimates.
Shares of Home Depot are up about 15% so far this year.
Intel
No company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had a tougher year than Intel (INTC). The once-dominant American chipmaker has struggled to maintain its technological lead over international rivals and is now in the midst of a massive turnaround.
Intel shares have lost more than 50% of their value this year as the chipmaker has reported huge losses –$16 billion in the third quarter alone – due to sluggish demand for computer chips and high costs at the chip foundry. The company’s limited exposure to artificial intelligence has also weighed on sentiment.
CEO Pat Gelsinger has a $10 billion austerity planincluding laying off approximately 15% of the company’s employees and suspending the dividend. Intel’s third-quarter results suggested the efforts could be starting to pay off. The company exceeded expectations with its quarterly revenue and sales outlook.
But now that the company is in trouble, the vultures are circling. Qualcomm (QCOM) reportedly has considered making an offer to buy at least some of Intel’s assets. Alternative asset manager Apollo Global Management has reportedly made an offer to the company Investment of 5 billion dollars.
The presidential election will have implications for U.S. trade policy and Sino-U.S. relations, both important for Intel insofar as they affect its main rival, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.TSM). Trump recently vowed to impose tough tariffs on Taiwan-made semiconductors to prop up American manufacturers like Intel.
Boeing
Boeings (BA) 2024 has been almost as tough as Intel’s.
The aircraft manufacturer’s shares have fallen 40% this year as the company dealt with the fallout from a door swing in early January. The company has billions of dollars burned in its efforts to restructure its operations and revitalize its public image.
Boeing’s problems were exacerbated in September when more than 30,000 union workers went on strike, a work stoppage that analysts estimate has cost Boeing as much as $100 million a day. Negotiators at the end of October reached a preliminary contract agreement that includes a 38% raise over the next four years, a boosted 401(k) match and a $12,000 ratification bonus. The proposal does not restore Boeing’s defined benefit plan, a key employee demand.
Most recently Boeing raised more than $21 billion through a public share offering aimed at helping the company weather the strike, which has crippled production and, depending on the outcome of a Nov. 4 union vote, could last into November for a third month.
Analysts are calling the ending of the strike “a clarification event.” could set the stage for Boeing’s turnaround.