Tennis Betting Tips: Rolex Paris Masters
Jannik Sinner, 3 points, 12/5 (Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)
1pt ew Grigor Dimitrov in 20/1 (General)
0.5 points ew Tommy Paul at odds 150/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Bookmaker Betfair
Rolex Paris Masters
- Paris, France (indoor, hard)
Three money match losers in as many weeks threaten to derail what was looking like a decent season for this column.
These results have certainly damaged confidence and, unfortunately, it is now time for the Paris Masters.
I’ve been writing these previews for over 20 years and I don’t remember ever tipping a winner at the Bercy Arena.
To be fair, the event has been notoriously volatile over the years, largely due to its position on the calendar.
The big guns have to play, but they often come to Paris with hopes of a bigger prize, namely the season-ending ATP Finals. This year the event will begin seven days after the final in Paris.
This is evidenced by the fact that Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray have won the title only twice.
At the opposite end of that scale, Tim Henman, Thomas Berdych, Robin Soderling and David Ferrer won their only Masters 1000 title in Paris.
Subsequently, my approach to betting here has generally been to try and find a potential big winner/finalist or two, although Novak Djokovic has made something of a mockery of my theory of fighting the market leaders recently – the Serbian has won the title seven times.
However, in the last seven years the tournament has been won by Jack Sock, Karen Khachanov and Holger Rune, all at huge prices.
Djokovic is absent this year, and Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite.
To be honest, this is a surprise for me and YANNIK ZINNER quite possibly worth supporting.
The Italian is currently the best player in the world and arrived in Paris having won 24 of his last 25 matches, counting the recent 6 Kings Slam where Sinner took home a whopping US$6 million.
Alcaraz is the only man to beat Sinner since Montreal in early August, and it was only thanks to a final set tiebreaker where Sinner led 3-0.
The revenge was taken in the 6 Kings final in Riyadh and I’m not entirely sure why Alcaraz is the market leader here.
There’s probably more to do to pave a potential path to the finale. Sinner’s does look a little tough with Ben Shelton, who finished second in Basel on Sunday, possibly taking first place.
However, as noted, Sinner has been beating all comers lately and has won his last four matches against Shelton, all in straight sets.
Alex Zverev poses the biggest seeding threat of the half but he is not at his best with concerns remaining over a lung problem he reported a few weeks ago.
Taylor Fritz is Sinner’s possible quarter-final opponent, but his crushing defeat to the Italian in the US Open final last month must have left some scarring.
The only thing that may bother Sinner supporters is the original theory I mentioned – that they have their eyes on a different prize. However, the two competitions are a week apart and I suspect Sinner will be keen to arrive in Turin maintaining his impressive form.
In my opinion, a player playing this well requires 12/5 support.
However, I want to test the old theory somehow, and I’ll do that by trying to find a finalist in the bottom half of the draw where I think Alcaraz is worth fighting.
It was never his best time of the year and the fact remains that he never reached an ATP indoor final.
This week I would like to support a couple of players who are very motivated.
Time is running out GRIGOR DIMITROV And TOMMY PAUL to reach the ATP finals.
Both are admittedly against it, but they also know that a title here could very well take them to Turin – for Dimitrov, a final performance could be enough.
Let’s start with the grinder.
He reached the final on the GreenSet surface here 12 months ago and was also a semi-finalist in 2019.
He should be happy to be in the quarters with Hubert Hurkacz and Daniil Medvedev, who are, in theory, the biggest tests that await him heading into the semi-finals.
Dimitrov recently reached the final in Stockholm (one of our misses) and last week lost to Thomas Machak in Vienna.
There could be a rematch here and I’m a bit tempted by the Czech given his shot is 250/1. He played well in Asia and only eventual champion Jack Draper was able to beat him in Vienna.
I wouldn’t put people off at that price, but I’m with Dimitrov here and can’t justify two bets in this section.
Instead, my expensive pick this week is Paul, who at 150 pounds looks way too big.
The American was the man who led Dimitrov to the title in Stockholm and played very well.
After the dash to Vienna he lost in the first round, but that can be explained by the quick turn of events and I honestly think it would be best for him to rest for a few days if he is going to compete for this prize.
Adrian Mannarino, Flavio Cobolli and Casper Ruud are a nice path to the last eight, where Paul can then meet Alcaraz.
And the good news is that the American regularly gave the world number two trouble in the six-match series, winning twice (both on hard surfaces).
He was also a tiebreaker away from winning one of the other tournaments, whereas at Wimbledon earlier this year he had a set and a break before losing.
If Alcaraz is one of those looking forward to Turin, where he has long qualified, then the quarter-finals could well be the time when he mentally retires.
In my opinion, Paul looks overpriced at 150/1 and I’ll back him accordingly.
Preview published at 16:44 GMT 27.10.24.