A new survey shows that 61% of Indian Americans will vote for Kamala Harris, while 31% will support Donald Trump in the ongoing US presidential election ending on November 5. According to the Indian-American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) 2024, conducted by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in collaboration with YouGov, and released on Monday, there is also worrying news for Democrats.
The survey shows that female voters of all age groups support Harris by a significant margin compared to their support for Trump. (AP)
There has been a dip in the desi community’s support for the Democratic presidential candidate compared to 2020, when 68% supported Joe Biden, and a rise in support for Trump from 22% four years ago to 31% now. There is a decline in the number of Indian-Americans who identify as Democrats, from 56% to 47%, and those who are Democratic, from 66% to 57%.
And in line with what appears to be a broader shift among ethnic groups, a big shift if reflected in the results, 48% of Indian-American men under 40 are with Trump, compared to 44% with Harris. This surge in support from young Indian men for a Republican candidate has occurred for the first time in electoral history and goes against anecdotal assumptions that push older men to be more conservative in their electoral choices. Support for Trump is also higher among those of Indian descent who were born in America, compared to foreign-born Indian immigrants who are naturalized citizens.
But in a sign of the complexity of the election and attitudes and the need to avoid easy conclusions, abortion, a key Democratic campaign issue, ranks right behind economic concerns as the second most important issue for Indian-American voters. The survey also shows that female voters of all age groups support Harris by a significant margin compared to their support for Trump, even though men appear split by age and older voters support Harris. Desi voters have also become more left-wing compared to four years ago.
The salience of desi voice
The study was conducted by three political scientists: Devesh Kapur of Johns Hopkins University, Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment and Sumitra Badrinathan of American University. It was published just a week before the end of an unprecedented election that pits a former president, who is also a convicted felon and has rejected the results of the last election, against a sitting vice president, who is the first black and Indian woman has been nominated for a major party and only entered the race 100 days ago.
A nationally representative sample of 714 Indian Americans responded to survey questions from mid-September to mid-October. The same scientists had conducted a similar survey in 2020 which was the first of its kind in terms of political and social attitudes it examined among Indian-Americans.
Nationally, there are now 5.2 million people of Indian descent in the US, of which 2.6 million are US citizens, according to the study. Indian-Americans are now the second largest immigrant group in the US, after Mexican-Americans. Their population has grown by 50% since 2010, the study said.
Indian Americans have emerged as a major voting bloc. Of those, 96% are billed as likely voters. Their average income is $153,000 a year, double the national average, the study found. And their political influence in terms of representation, as most clearly symbolized in Harris’ appointment, financial strength, business leadership and presence in academia and medicine, gives them high visibility in public life. And they are present in swing states where the elections are close and the margin of victory is low.
Lean Harris, with caveats
The survey offers clear signs that while there is a growing conservative political bent, the liberal trend within the community remains most dominant, with Indian-Americans defying easy generalizations.
The fact that 61% of Indian-Americans support Harris, according to the poll, puts the community second behind African-Americans, 77% of whom are in favor of Harris, in terms of their support for the Democratic candidate. The desi ratio of support is higher than the poll’s 58% Hispanic support and 41% white support for Harris.
There is also an increase in the share of those who identify themselves as left-wing, from 47% to 55%, and a decrease in those who identify themselves as conservative, from 23% to 17%. Kapur, Vaishnav and Badrinathan highlight the key messages from the findings.
On gender, there is a clear divide, even though the majority of both men and women are Democrats. Among women, 67% support Harris, while 22% support Trump. Among men, 53% support Harris and 39% support Trump. In terms of age, Harris’ support is strongest among older people: 70% over 50 support her, while 55-56% under 50 are with her.
Putting gender and age together, viewed from a different prism, among those over 40, 70% of women and 60% of men were in favor of Harris. Under the age of 40, 60% of women said they were in favor of Harris. Men under 40 are the only age group where Trump enjoys higher support, with, as previously noted, 48% supporting Trump, compared to 44% for Harris.
Unlike other groups, college education is not a marker of difference in political preferences among Indians. But one interesting distinction is based on immigration status and birth. Among naturalized citizens, Harris is more popular by a large margin: 67% support her and only 24% support Trump. Among those born in the US, the gap is smaller, with 53% supporting Harris and 39% supporting Trump. The study authors note that this suggests that ethnic identity may be more important for immigrants, while gender is a bigger marker of difference among those born in America.
In terms of religious divisions, Trump enjoys more support among Hindus than among non-Hindus, while a majority of all groups support Harris. As many as 58% of Hindus surveyed were in favor of Harris, while 35% were in favor of Trump. In terms of non-Hindus of Indian origin, 62% were for Harris and 27% for Trump.
Iissues and policies
The poll shows that for Indian-Americans, like the rest of American voters, economic concerns remain the most important factor in determining political choices. For 17% of respondents, inflation and prices were the most important issues, while 13% cited jobs and the economy as their top issues.
Abortion was also crucial for 13% of voters, while immigration was the most important issue for ten percent of voters. Healthcare, climate, civil liberties, crime, taxes and spending were next on the list of issues. Only four percent of respondents believed that US-India relations were a top issue. The survey shows a partisan divide, with Republicans prioritizing the economy and Democrats prioritizing abortion.
Another way the survey assesses attitudes is by asking respondents which charities they would contribute to. Charities concerned with the climate, expanding abortion rights and helping Palestinians are high on the list for desis, again showing a strong liberal orientation.
The survey asks what it is about the two parties that voters don’t like. Among Republicans, Indian-American voters are uncomfortable with the party’s treatment of minorities, its stance on abortion, its networking with evangelicals and its economic policies. And among Democrats, Indian-American voters expressed unease about their stance on illegal immigration, economic policies, identity politics and far-left influence.
“The key finding of the 2024 IAAS is that Indian Americans remain deeply connected to the Democratic Party, but less so since 2020. Six in 10 Indian American citizens plan to vote for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris… However, the Republican Party has made modest progress, as evidenced by the increase in support for Donald Trump,” the authors conclude.