To be successful, the dynamic game Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than just knowing the sport we are competing for. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous efforts, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game theory methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect last week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious guaranteed prize pool tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same principles of game theory, which are most simply explained as the development of decision-making processes based on our own skills and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skills and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the outdated roster building techniques used by much of the field. Approaching improvements through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful schedules and help us develop repeatable profitable habit patterns for weeks to come. We’ll start by reviewing last week’s winning roster, draw relevant lessons from it for future reference, and end with a look ahead to the upcoming main roster.
Winning selection
Week 8 Winner of $20 Millionaire Maker 2024
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Lessons learned
Optimal versus repeatable
We’ll start this section by saying that this is an extremely nuanced discussion. How can we know whether a selection has been put together properly or has ended up in the lottery? This is a discussion about variance manipulation, which is extremely important to understand given the vast amounts of variance present in this game we play.
Consider the odds of a nine-leg parlay. If we simplify the math as much as possible and say that each side of each leg is a perfect 50-50, your actual chance of hitting a nine-leg parlay is about 0.2%, or the same chance of hitting it nine times row to win a coin. time. Now consider the odds on a nine-leg parlay if the individual odds are not perfectly 50-50, which is the case in fantasy football when there are more than two outcomes for each position in our roster. To put it bluntly, the odds of landing the perfect combination of nine players that maximize the score at each individual position, as would be the case with the optimal selection on any given slate, are astronomical.
As such, we have tools at our disposal to manage the variance present in this game that we hold dear. Things like team stacks, correlation, including a tight end in a primary stack, including a running back in a primary stack, correlation in the game environment, and statistical analysis-based plays reduce the variance associated with a nine-leg parlay, reducing the variables which you have to get right to win a tournament. In other words, we can effectively turn a nine-leg parlay into a three- or four-leg parlay by using these methods, increasing the hit rate by a factor of 100 in some cases. Furthermore, in Daily Fantasy’s twelve years of existence, there has never been an optimal roster, meaning we don’t even need an optimal roster to win.
That said, the roster that won the Millionaire Maker in Week 8 was put together more like a lottery ticket than through repeatedly profitable methodologies. Not that that can’t win (it clearly made DraftKings user rick12324 a million dollars), just that the user who won won the lottery. And that’s fine, but it’s extremely difficult to maintain profitability by playing the lottery.
Looking ahead
Prices remain tight
While the Week 9 roster appears to be much more conducive to fantasy production on the surface than the recent main cards, player prices remain extremely tight. And since the score needed to win on a given list is more closely correlated with available value rather than game totals, the score needed to win in Week 9 will likely hover around 205-210 points. Compare that to the 190 points needed to win in Week 6, the 180 points needed to win in Week 7, and the 210 points needed to win in Week 8, and we’ll probably be a series closer at week 8 then see the previous two. main slates. Starting at the endpoint and reverse-engineering the roster construction needed to win can help guide roster construction decisions, which will likely be of utmost importance in Week 9. Through that process, finding the players with a price lower than where they should be at any given time. slate can help identify the potential value opportunities needed to generate additional salary.
Players too cheap for expected role and matchup
Puka Nacua returned from a lengthy absence to a 26.5% target share as the primary focus of the Rams’ offense through the air, specifically operating as the primary movement man and primary plan utility man through the air. His $7,200 salary at DraftKings is too low for that role and he offers an interesting value opportunity in Week 9 against the Seahawks.
De’Von Achane has seen goal counts in games with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa of seven, seven, and eight, and has an expected fantasy points per game value that would be tied with the season’s WR8 just from the use of passing games. He’s playing against a Bills team that allows the most running back receptions (51) and most receiving yards (434) to the position. Achane costs just $6,700 on DraftKings.
Adam Thielen will likely return from injured reserve to a team that just traded Diontae Johnson, leaving the Panthers with just one pass-catching option who has proven he can handle targets at the professional level. Thielen costs just $4,700 on DraftKings and plays against a Saints team, allowing the seventh-most DK points per game to opposing wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton is the only pass-catcher on the Broncos to see consistent volume, with Week 8 marking the third game this season in which Sutton saw double-digit targets. The Broncos now get a Ravens team that allows the second-most DK points per game to opposing wide receivers and costs just $5,400 on DraftKings.
Jayden Reed is the only Green Bay wide receiver to surpass 30 DK points at any point this season, having done so twice in five games played with a fully healthy Jordan Love. Love suffered two more injuries in Week 8, but got some good news after an MRI revealed a groin strain. The Packers get a Lions defense that allows the third-most DK points per game to opposing wide receivers, and Reed costs just $6,400 after multiple weeks in a row.